> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://arc-10.gitbook.io/arc/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://arc-10.gitbook.io/arc/006340_/t3.md).

# Valuation

***

## 1. 현재 멀티플

| 지표                 | 대원전선       | 산출 근거               |
| ------------------ | ---------- | ------------------- |
| PER (TTM)          | **134.7x** | EPS 113원            |
| PER (Fwd 26Q1 연환산) | **약 28x**  | EPS 536원            |
| PBR                | **9.97x**  | BPS 1,527원          |
| ROE                | 8.5%       | 2025                |
| OP Margin          | 1.5%       | TTM (26Q1 OPM 7.8%) |

***

## 2. Peer Comparison

| 기업          |       시총 |        PER |        PBR |
| ----------- | -------: | ---------: | ---------: |
| **대원전선**    |  11,935억 | **134.7x** |  **9.97x** |
| LS ELECTRIC | 407,250억 |     142.1x |      19.52 |
| Prysmian    |   \~$20B |      약 20x |       약 4x |
| Nexans      |    \~$4B |      약 18x |       약 2x |
| **글로벌 평균**  |        — |  **약 17x** | **약 2.4x** |

***

## 3. PBR 시나리오

| 시나리오              |  PBR |   적정주가 | 현재가 대비 |
| ----------------- | ---: | -----: | -----: |
| 극보수 (글로벌 평균)      |  2.4 |  3,665 | -75.9% |
| 보수                |  4.0 |  6,108 | -59.9% |
| 기본                |  6.0 |  9,162 | -39.8% |
| 낙관                | 9.97 | 15,225 |     0% |
| 극낙관 (LS ELECTRIC) | 15.0 | 22,905 | +50.5% |

### 확률가중 적정주가

| 시나리오     |   확률 |   적정주가 |          가중 |
| -------- | ---: | -----: | ----------: |
| 극보수      |  15% |  3,665 |         550 |
| 보수       |  25% |  6,108 |       1,527 |
| 기본       |  30% |  9,162 |       2,749 |
| 낙관       |  20% | 15,225 |       3,045 |
| 극낙관      |  10% | 22,905 |       2,291 |
| **확률가중** | 100% |      — | **10,162원** |

**현재 15,220원 대비 -33.2% 다운사이드**

***

## 4. 결론

PBR 9.97x = 옵션 가치 1~~3년 선반영. **확률가중 10,162원 = -33.2% 다운사이드** = 명백한 고평가. \*\*단기 -20~~-30% 평균회귀 후 MA20 (13,920원) 또는 MA60 (8,474원) 영역 분할 매수 권장\*\*.


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