> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://arc-10.gitbook.io/arc/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://arc-10.gitbook.io/arc/356860_/t3.md).

# Valuation

***

## 1. 현재 멀티플

| 지표         | 값          |
| ---------- | ---------- |
| PER (TTM)  | **55.39x** |
| Fwd PER    | 약 28\~33x  |
| PBR        | **8.27x**  |
| EV/EBITDA  | 약 22x      |
| EV/Revenue | 약 4.2x     |
| ROE        | 15.0%      |
| OP Margin  | 10.0%      |

**핵심**: PER 55x는 단기 고평가, 정상화 Fwd PER 28\~33x로 글로벌 PCB Peer 대비 프리미엄. **DDR5·CXL·SSD 슈퍼사이클 + 항공우주 옵션 선반영**.

***

## 2. Peer Comparison

| 기업        |      시총 |   PER |       PBR |   OPM |
| --------- | ------: | ----: | --------: | ----: |
| **티엘비**   | 10,550억 | 55.4x | **8.27x** | 10.0% |
| 심텍        |    (확인) |     — |         — |     — |
| Unimicron |  \~$12B | 약 20x |      약 3x | 약 12% |
| Ibiden    |  \~$10B | 약 30x |      약 2x | 약 15% |
| TTM Tech  |   \~$2B | 약 25x |    약 1.5x |  약 8% |

**프리미엄**: PBR vs 글로벌 +175% — DDR5·CXL 슈퍼사이클 + 한국 niche 프리미엄.

***

## 3. PBR 시나리오

| 시나리오                 | PBR |    BPS |           적정 |  vs 현재 |
| -------------------- | --: | -----: | -----------: | -----: |
| 보수 (DDR5 사이클 둔화)     |  4x | 13,000 |  **52,000원** | -51.5% |
| 기본 (정상화 + CXL 본격)    |  8x | 14,500 | **116,000원** |  +8.1% |
| 낙관 (CXL 본격·항공우주 가시화) | 12x | 16,500 | **198,000원** | +84.5% |

***

## 4. DCF

DDR5·CXL·SSD 트리플 사이클 가시화 모델 적용 어려움. PBR/PER 시나리오 기반.

***

## 5. 컨센서스

* 메리츠 등 증권사 커버리지 다수 (2025-07·09 리포트)
* 2026E 매출 3,500억+, OP 400\~500억 추정

***

## 6. 논평

**핵심**: PER 55x 단기 고평가이나 정상화 Fwd 28\~33x로 가능. PBR 8.27x는 DDR5·CXL 슈퍼사이클 선반영. \*\*확률가중 적정주가 약 116,000원 (+8%)\*\*으로 거의 적정가 영역. 단기 평균회귀 시 89,135원(MA20) 분할 매수 권장.

**재평가 트리거**: 분기 OPM 10%+ 안정 / CXL 2.0 매출 본격화 / 항공우주 첫 수주 / DDR5·LPDDR5X 비중 확대


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